Is Solar Still Worth It Under NEM 3.0? A Realistic Analysis

This is the question on every California homeowner's mind: with NEM 3.0 cutting export credits by 75%, is solar still a good investment? Let's look at the numbers honestly.

The Pessimistic View

Critics point out that under NEM 3.0:

• Solar-only systems have longer payback periods (8–10 years vs. 4–6)
• Export credits are worth pennies compared to dollars before
• Battery systems add $10,000–$15,000 to the upfront cost

The Reality Check

Now here's what those critics miss:

• Utility rates have risen 40% since NEM 3.0 launched — The savings from self-consumption have grown dramatically. What you avoid paying matters more than what you get for exports.
• Battery costs have dropped 30% since 2023 — Battery systems that cost $15,000 in 2023 now cost $10,000–$12,000.
• The federal tax credit covers 30% of everything — Solar panels AND batteries qualify for the 30% ITC.
• You're comparing against a moving target — Your alternative isn't cheap electricity. It's PG&E at $0.45/kWh and climbing. Over 25 years, that could be $0.80+/kWh.

Real Scenario: Solar + Battery Under NEM 3.0

For a PG&E customer with a $350/month bill who installs an 8 kW solar system with a 13.5 kWh battery:

• System cost after ITC: ~$22,000
• Annual savings (year 1): ~$3,800
• Payback period: ~5.8 years
• 25-year savings: $95,000–$115,000
• Return on investment: ~400%

What Other Investment Gives You 400% Returns?

Solar isn't just "worth it" — it's one of the best investments a California homeowner can make. The stock market averages 10% annually. Solar delivers 15–20% effective returns, tax-free, with virtually zero risk (the sun will keep shining, and rates will keep rising).

Run your own numbers or get a free personalized quote.